Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, September 23th

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following overnight selling and another stock rally. The Dow is currently up 446 points while the Nasdaq has gained 139 points. The bond market is currently down 18/32 (1.36%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be higher by approximately .375 of a discount point if compared to Wednesday’s early pricing.

18/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.36%

446


Dow


34,704

139


NASDAQ


15,036

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Positive


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This morning’s first piece of economic data was last week’s unemployment update that revealed 351,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 335,000 new filings and noticeably higher than the 317,000 that was expected. Rising claims is a sign of a weakening employment sector, making the data good news for rates. Unfortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot that doesn’t carry enough importance to offset the overnight selling in bonds that carried into this morning’s session.

Medium


Negative


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Also posted this morning was August’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a 0.9% rise that exceeded forecasts of 0.6%, meaning the indicators are predicting stronger economic growth over the next several months. We can label this report as negative for bonds and mortgage rates, but it has had no impact on this morning’s trading. Bonds were set to open in negative ground long before this report was posted.

Low


Unknown


New Home Sales

Tomorrow brings us the release of August's New Home Sales report from the Commerce Department. It is expected to show that sales of newly constructed homes rose last month, but this report will likely not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless it differs greatly from forecasts. It is the week's least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates, partly because it covers only the small portion of all homes sales that yesterday's Existing Home Sales report did not.

Medium


Unknown


Fed Talk

Also worth noting is a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Powell at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning via webcast. Anytime he speaks, the markets listen. It is hard to imagine that we will get a major surprise in such a short time after his press conference yesterday. Still, we could see rates react heavily to something he says at this appearance.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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